For as long as retailers have existed, they have sought ways to monetize the audience they bring to suppliers. From end caps to circulars, retailers have been a pervasive, but understated, media partner to brands of all sizes. 

But nothing in history has the scope and potential of retail media–the process of selling inventory on their websites, and other owned channels, to brands. 

It’s quickly becoming a huge market for advertisers, reaching $46B of ad spend in 2023. That is significantly higher than CTV, which was estimated at $25B. It is also expected to reach $100B by 2026. 

While some might consider retail media a performance marketing channel, Upwave data busts that myth, showing it is also a brand-building powerhouse.

Upwave’s recent analysis of over 500 retail media campaigns, spanning 300+ brands, found that 96% of campaigns had a positive lift on at least one brand KPI, 87% of campaigns had at least one brand KPI that was above Upwave Norms, and 18.8% of campaigns exceeded Upwave Norms for all brand KPIs.

The Rise of Retail Media

As with other eCommerce advancements, Amazon deserves credit for building the modern retail media network environment. Once Amazon became the online store for virtually everything, they realized millions of people were coming by daily to buy a variety of things. Amazon could sell space on its various product and category webpages to companies looking to influence those visitors. That first-mover advantage has paid off. Over 75% of the current US Retail Media investment is spent on Amazon advertising. Walmart is second, via its advertising solutions division, Walmart Connect.

There’s a simple reason why so many retailers are joining the ranks of retail media: the channel can produce margins of up to 90%, according to the Boston Consulting Group. We’ve even heard that it’s not hyperbole to suggest retailers would gladly do away with selling goods if they could just make the same amount of money in the media. 

Now, brands as diverse as Uber, Sephora, Sam’s Club, and Best Buy all have their retail media networks.

Unsurprisingly, performance marketers have flocked to retail media as a way to monetize that audience immediately. And, sure, it makes perfect sense that people browsing a retailer’s website are considered to be in the market to buy now.

However, retail media is a huge opportunity for brand building, one not nearly enough companies are taking advantage of. That means industry watchers are potentially even underestimating the future revenue opportunities from retail media.

Here’s why.

• The massive first-party data retailers are sitting on. It’s no coincidence that retail media is at the top of the minds of all advertisers at a time when cookies are going away. Retailers are better equipped than almost anyone else to offer targeting capabilities to advertisers and their agencies. They have a plethora of data on hand about households, such as if they have kids. For example, a car manufacturer can more accurately advertise its suite of cars to the right buyers (e.g. a minivan to those with multiple children).

• Not everyone on those websites is in the market to buy. It’s hard to track down specific stats for how many people visit a website without adding something to their shopping cart but the overwhelming majority of visitors do not purchase at the time of visiting. Sometimes people are browsing and not looking for something specific. Even those looking to make a purchase could be stopped in their tracks by a brand-building ad regardless. 

• Non-endemic ads performed as well, if not better than endemic ones. Another myth busted for this channel, Upwave’s study found that advertisements featuring products not for sale on retail media sites outperformed those that you could buy in several key areas, including ad recall, consideration, and purchase intent. One reason is the ad stands out as unique amid dozens of product listings. For example, an ad for insurance may be more noticeable among kitchen staples on a grocery store website. 

• Its reach extends beyond the retail domain. Amazon has Prime, a video platform increasingly winning high-profile deals like NFL broadcasts and producing large-budget shows like Lord of the Rings. Walmart has agreed to acquire Vizio, a manufacturer of smart TVs. Rakuten purchased eBook company Kobo. That’s in addition to their ability to place ads on third-party sites they don’t own. Retailers and eTailers alike are looking to expand their reach as far as possible, given the data advantage they have on many other websites. Retail media offers much more than on-site placements because they can better validate those audiences.

• A strong trust factor. Individuals browsing their favorite retail websites, apps, or streaming from retailer-owned platforms, are likely to trust those who run ads on the site. A 2024 eMarketer study found consumers trusted ads on retail sites almost double that of social media or third-party marketplaces. Furthermore, slightly over 50% of respondents were more likely to buy items and try out a new brand they hadn’t purchased before if a retailer advertised them. This is especially important for newer brands looking to build up their name recognition and trust. Our study found retail media tied with online video as driving the most consideration against all other mediums. Frequent shoppers of a particular website could learn about a brand one day through a well-placed ad intended to drive consideration, and then return days or weeks later to make a purchase.

Now is the time for brand marketers to reevaluate their channel mix and take another look at this medium. By understanding that brand-building is a possibility in retail media it opens up the category for more growth than what is being predicted. All of our data demonstrates it’s a huge opportunity for brands looking to impact consumer behavior along the mid-lower brand funnel. Now is the time for brand builders to embrace the opportunity before the rest catch on.

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Google has had a tough few months.

First, they announced an abrupt about-face in their years-long initiative to remove third-party cookies from Chrome. Barely two weeks later, they were officially declared a Search monopoly by a federal court in one of the most consequential antitrust losses in decades (with another concurrent antitrust case about Google’s AdTech business still pending.) 

As the CTO of Upwave (a Brand Outcomes measurement startup) I’ve spent the last decade doing what everyone in AdTech has to do – navigate cautiously and quietly around Google, for fear of drawing their ire (or simply being toppled by their massive wake.) I have spent years participating in World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) discussions about Google’s Privacy Sandbox, and I’ve watched the cookie saga unfold with morbid fascination. 

One thing became clear very early in the W3C process – a small number of companies (particularly, but not exclusively Google) believed very deeply that they had both the power and the right to exercise pervasive control over the entire digital media and advertising industries. Now, it appears that Google may have finally found the limits of its influence: at the courthouse steps. 

But with or without third-party cookies, the web must go on. So where do we all go next?

The Privacy Paradox

The Privacy Sandbox initiative was Google’s attempt to reconcile irreconcilable objectives: overcoming Apple’s privacy counter-positioning, maintaining ad revenue primarily generated by capturing and applying comprehensive behavioral data about its billion+, and preserving a sufficiently healthy web ecosystem (since what’s the point of maintaining a search monopoly if searchers have nothing to find?) 

However, Google’s approach was fundamentally flawed in its overly simplistic view of privacy, focusing solely on eliminating cross-site tracking. This narrow definition sidestepped uncomfortable conversations about Google’s data collection and use, but also set an unrealistic bar for the Privacy Sandbox APIs by demanding they facilitate effective advertising while rendering cross-site data sharing technologically unfeasible.

Google put a smart, capable team in the Privacy Sandbox, but their mission was impossible from the start.

The Monopoly Question

The recent court ruling confirming Google’s monopoly in search underscores the company’s immense influence in shaping the digital landscape. Google’s control of the most widely used web browser means that its decisions about cookies and privacy reverberate throughout the advertising ecosystem. And Google’s “walled garden” approach to its many interlocking properties has allowed it to build an unassailable flywheel by tightly bundling its proprietary data, unique scaled inventory, and ad tech stack. 

The Privacy Sandbox initiative, despite its stated goals, has always seemed more about protecting Google’s flywheel than about safeguarding user privacy. And whether the ongoing antitrust trial focused on Google’s ad tech business finds that Google’s dominance of the plumbing of ad buying and serving rises to the level of a monopoly, there can be no doubt that the entire ad tech industry still operates in Google’s long shadow.

Forging a New Privacy Path

Google’s announcement that they won’t entirely remove 3rd party cookies doesn’t mean cookies are safe. Industry analysts anticipate Google will likely implement a consent mechanism similar to Apple’s “App Tracking Transparency,” effectively decimating cookie availability without outright eliminating them.

This scenario presents significant challenges:

1. The industry loses momentum in its efforts to move beyond outdated tracking methods.
2. The Privacy Sandbox initiative risks fading into irrelevance without the urgency of imminent cookie deprecation.
3. Uncertainty surrounding the open web’s future continues to accelerate ad spending shifts toward walled gardens, paradoxically giving a few tech giants even more panoptical views of user behavior.
4. Google may decide it has bigger problems than the long-term viability of the open web and simply retreat into its castle, leaving everyone outside its walls to pick up the pieces.

The digital advertising industry stands at a critical juncture. It’s evident that where privacy is concerned, both industry self-regulation and unilateral decisions by tech giants have fallen short. 

So what’s next? In a world where big tech can no longer set the rules, what’s needed instead is a collaborative, multi-stakeholder effort to develop pragmatic privacy standards, practices, and enforceable guidelines.

It’s time for an international coalition to unite regulators, industry representatives, academic experts, and consumer advocates. Their collective task should be to craft a flexible, adaptable privacy framework that embraces a comprehensive view of privacy, acknowledging its contextual nature and the intricate realities of data usage in today’s digital ecosystem.

In the interim, we must prepare for a transitional period where cookie effectiveness wanes, but no clear alternative emerges. Advertisers must explore and evaluate various strategies, including refining contextual targeting, exploring emerging privacy-preserving technologies, and learning to think like marketing economists.

Google’s privacy misstep, combined with its antitrust challenges, presents an opportunity for industry-wide recalibration. By fostering collaboration, diversifying our approaches, and constructively engaging with regulators, we can work towards building a truly user-centric, economically sustainable, privacy-respecting digital ecosystem.

Ultimately, we have no choice. Google and the Privacy Sandbox are not coming to save us.

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